The end of the Kievan regime and of the EU warlords is nigh

For some months I have been saying that Russian victory in the Ukraine war will not come from some great surge on the battlefield that forces capitulation but from a socio-political-financial collapse. Now I am ever more persuaded that this is what we will see in the coming few weeks thanks to the contributing factors of Trump’s pulling the plug on all military assistance to Zelensky and to his NATO backers, thanks to Trump’s promoting dissension within the EU by actively calling for Europe to resume oil and gas imports from Russia, thanks to the mass demonstrations going on presently in France and Italy largely under the slogan of cost of living (which is directly related to the war and sanctions on Russia) and thanks to Alice Weidel of the Alternative for Germany party breaking the omerta imposed by the SD-CDU uniparty in Germany over importing Russian hydrocarbons here and now.

I was contacted this morning by a good friend in the United States who asked if I could make any sense of the zig-zags, seemingly bizarre pattern of US government actions relating to the Ukraine war and sanctions on Russia, secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian gas and oil like India and China over the past several weeks. Then there was the cutoff of Starlink services to the Ukrainian military leaving them defenseless against incoming Russian missiles and drones.

I said that I have no problem seeing an iron logic in all of this which nearly all Mainstream and Alt Media do not see because they have been sniggering about Trump’s mental state, about his alleged senility since the day he stepped back in the Oval Office when what I see is a magnificent operation to confuse all his enemies, to leave them puzzled as to what comes next while he proceeds in his own inimitable manner to his objectives: namely to withdraw the US from a collapsing NATO, to help break up the European Union and to engage Russia and China in a Yalta-2 type reorganization of the world order with clearly defined zones of hegemonic interest. That vision harks back to the mentorship Henry Kissinger provided to candidate Trump before his first election to office.

The logic for the first two of these objectives is not abstract or hard to comprehend: it is based on domestic U.S. political considerations which were firmly in place during Trump’s first administration. The fact then and now is that the European Union and its leadership is imbued with globalist ideology and supposedly progressive values that make them the willing allies of Trump’s Democratic Party opposition, which is antithetical to everything he stands for. There is no whim in what he is doing to break up the EU with help from Elan Musk and other fellow thinkers. It is raw politics and it makes good sense, for him, for the USA and for the peoples of Europe, who are being deindustrialized, whose economies are being wrecked by a leadership that has lost all sense of pragmatism and national interest, serving instead policies aimed at keeping themselves in power by preaching fear, hatred and war-mongering.

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Now let us go through each of the dynamics leading to the imminent collapse of Kiev and of its backers in the EU.

Last night’s news wrap-up on Russian state television opened with a celebration of the capture of Dobropolye, a town in the Donetsk oblast which is now being described as a key logistical support center to Ukrainian troops concentrated in the next and last heavily fortified cities in the oblast, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk, guardians to the open plains leading to the Dnieper River. In the meantime a suburb of Kramatorsk has also been captured and we understand that Ukrainian forces have been ordered to evacuate the two cities, meaning that their capture by the Russians can only be weeks away, though fierce fighting lies ahead. We also heard President Putin solemnly declare that now Ukraine holds only 10% of the Donetsk oblast territory and 16% of Zaporozhiye, while Lugansk is 100% controlled by Russia.

Other news on state television fills in the multiple slow-motion collapse of Ukraine and of the EU that I mention above.

First, we were shown the results of the latest strategy meeting of European leaders in Brussels to consider the now vastly raised Ukrainian demands of financial assistance for 2027. Kiev is now projecting a 150 billion euro war budget for the year and is looking to collect this from Brussels. However, the European leaders reached no consensus on further aid. Two countries, Czechia and Hungary said flatly they will veto appropriating one more euro to Ukraine. That all by itself spells check-mate for Kiev in this war.

Second, we were shown extensive coverage of the massive anti-government demonstrations going on presently across France, from Marseilles, to Lyon, to Bordeaux and with the biggest protests in Paris. To be sure, the war in Ukraine, geopolitics is not mentioned in any of these anti-Macron demonstrations but the dual demands of the protesters relate to issues that are themselves the direct result of the war and of EU sanctions on Russia: the unacceptably high and rising cost of living and the allocation of the budget to rising military expenditures while cutting funding for schools and education. According to the French police, yesterday there were 550,000 demonstrators, both peaceful and violent, out on the streets of France yesterday with thousands of arrests. According to the organizers of the peaceful demonstrators, there were 800,000 out on the streets denouncing Macron and his government. If this continues and builds further it is hard to see how Macron, who has only 10% popular support, can hold onto power.

Meanwhile, similar mass demonstrations have broken out in Italy’s main cities of Rome, Milano and the university town of Bologna. They are calling for Meloni’s resignation over the same issues of underfunding for education and social welfare, which as we know results from the rising war budget.

Third, as Russian state television showed us in a very appropriate video clip of Alternative for Deutschland’s leader Alice Weidel, the curse of McCarthyism, which Germany’s left and right of center parties had adopted more than a decade ago to shut up all naysayers to the war party policies of their federal coalition governments, has finally and decisively been smashed just as Donald Trump liberated us all in his first presidential campaign by saying publicly what any of us could have gone to prison for saying had we dared. The subject is now out for open discussion in Germany: when and how to restart the Nord Stream pipelines with likely U.S. assistance; when and how to restart purchase of Russian oil, diesel fuel, etc.

This combination of developments leads me to be optimistic that the long awaited end of this disastrous war is approaching and that the monsters who have been running the EU these past several years to the detriment of the economies and national welfare of the Member States, in particular Ursula von der Leyen, Kaya Kallas and company will be put out on the street. It will be a double dividend if Chancellor Merz is forced out by his own patty and federal elections are held. A victory by Weidel is a real possibility and would change the dynamics in Europe in a very healthy direction.

Copyright Gilbert Doctorow, 2026

Two additional insights from the past week

In my last essay on my week of hospitalization, I omitted a couple of issues. One of these is highly relevant to all prospective travelers to Russia. The other relates to general security and lawfulness in urban Russia today,

The first issue is health insurance that you are obliged to subscribe to when you apply for a visa. The most common provider of this health insurance for foreign visitors is Ingosstrakh. Applying for the insurance is fairly complicated if you do not have a friend in Russia to guide you through the process and to pay the insurance fees on your behalf since you cannot pay them using a non-Russian credit card. Somehow people do solve this problem and I will not dwell on it.

The problem is how do you actually get the insurance benefits if you require medical assistance here.

As I said in my first essay, when I entered the emergency room of the Mariinsky Municipal Hospital no one took an interest in my presenting my insurance policy. But three days later, a lady from their Payments Department visited me in my ward and pressed the point: how will the first bill for 300 euros equivalent be paid? I showed her my policy and then at her request called Ingosstrakh to get the ball rolling. They were indignant that it was only on day 3 that I contacted them but reluctantly acknowledged that there is a claim. I turned the matter over to the hospital Payments lady to resolve directly with the insurer. I heard nothing more, meaning that settlement, that guaranty of payment was issued by Ingosstrakh. But then a day before my release the Payments lady visited me again to say that Ingosstrakh was refusing to pay 75 euros in claims on the xrays which were administered, saying they were excessive in number. Wow! Some bureaucrat in the insurance company deciding what is and what is not a proper insurable expense and proper medical procedures without having access to the details of the case. At their request, I phoned Ingosstrakh and protested vehemently at their refusal without knowing why my treatment required supplemental control xrays. After that the issue disappeared and I checked out of the hospital. Simply amazing that Ingosstrakh was trying to weasel out of a 75 euro charge when the face value of my policy is for 10,000 euros. So, dear friends, be aware of what awaits you if you have to make claims against your health insurance.

The second issue of broader importance relates to the traffic police. As you may understand, all of my health travails began with my being knocked down by an SUV that backed up into me while I as waiting for a taxi. The driver got out of his car, cursed me for being in the roadway and not on the pavement and then just drove off. Hit and run is what this is categorized as and it is a criminal act everywhere including in Russia.

On about day two of my hospitalization I got an SMS from the local brokers of Ingosstrakh responsible for northwest Russia putting me in touch with the Petersburg Traffic Police, whom they informed about my case. I assume that the motive of the insurer was to eventually claw back their expenses from the driver in damages.

The Traffic Police took the initiative to request that I visit them to make a deposition. When it became clear that my hospitalization was being extended, the Police then came to me in the hospital. A very smart young officer listened to my story of the incident, wrote it up for me to sign. He also took down the coordinates of my wife who had been an onlooker to my being struck. From his case folder it was clear that they had recovered the videos of the whole incident that took place at 10.50 am on 9th October. The whole space in front of the hotel is covered by multiple video cameras that send the images to the municipal authorities.

Then the real surprise came on the next day, Thursday, when the Police officer brought with him the already apprehended driver of the car that struck me. This was an act of generosity by the Police in deference to the driver’s wish to buy me off and persuade me to withdraw my accusation. Indeed, the driver’s first words were: “You are an American. Let”s do a Trump-like deal.” He offered to pay the medical costs, to pay for my staying on in Russia for several weeks until I am allowed to board a plane and leave.

I was not obliging: I refused to withdraw my deposition. But I did offer in writing a statement that will surely lessen his punishment when the case goes before a judge: I said that I very much appreciated his apology now and that I will not seek damages of any kind over this incident. That leaves it to the insurance company to go after his scalp as I am sure they will do.

I have presented the foregoing to make a very important fact: Russian Traffic Police are today highly competent, have at their disposal the video recorders everywhere to prove or disprove allegations in cases of violation of the law. And they have on board diligent and smart policemen. All of this is a radical change from when I was living and working in Petersburg in the 1990s. Then the traffic police were themselves among the most corrupt state employees, shaking down drivers for imaginary or insignificant offenses, demanding payment in cash on the spot to drop the case. It was scandalous.

Judging by what I saw this week, the police are now well under control and are performing a meritorious mission.

Copyright Gilbert Doctorow, 2026

To hell and back: my release from the hospital yesterday

In my first couple of essays this past week addressing the question of what Russian medicine looks like from inside the beast, I was largely positive about the operations of the Mariinsky Municipal hospital where I was being treated for Pneumothoras (collapsed lung) consequent to being knocked down by a car in front of my hotel.

And I open this essay with a frank expression of gratitude to the hospital staff for saving my life.

So much for the Big Picture. Now let us move on to the realities of this past week which were a week spent in hell, with much of the suffering unnecessary if hospital care were reorganized here, not just in this one hospital but in Russia generally, because what I describe here is the rule not the exception in Russian medicine.

I am well aware that subscribers to this substack account are favorably disposed to Russia, that many of you would happily come here to experience Russia for yourselves. For that very reason, I issue this essay so that you understand the risks that face you in case you need medical attention, especially hospital care.

I address particular attention to how they deal with patients’ pain, because this was the single most devastating element of my time in the hospital and does not require capital investments, changes in personnel hiring or anything complicated and expensive as require my other observations of what is wrong in their hospitals.

I have in mind the very rare use of general anaesthesia in Russia, when it would be entirely possible to spare the patient the kind of excruciating pain that was inflicted on me 4 times in the past week:

first when a tube was inserted into my right lung to evacuate the air that had entered the thorax and compressed the lung, then twice when it was discovered that the tube had become wrongly lodged and was not facilitating the evacuation so that it was removed and a new tube was inserted. Then finally, yesterday, when that tube was pulled out.

In Belgium, everyone undergoing a colonoscopy is offered the option of general anaesthesia. This has a medical benefit, because it keeps the patient steady, without twitching at each move of the probe. But it also eliminates the discomfort bordering on pain from the probe itself.

Here, the insertion/removal of the tubes inflicted terrific pain, the sort that causes you to black out, without a thought being given to general anaesthesia, or even to strong local anaesthetics. The needle injections of some pain killer around the point of entry of the tube were less effective than what your dentist administers before treating a cavity and they did not wait one minute for even that to take effect. In the best of cases, these local injections could treat only the point of entry and not the pain delivered deep in the chest by the tube’s positioning.

I do not want to sound categorical. One of my ward-mates told me that in his abdominal surgery they used general anaesthesia and he came out fine. But for non-invasive surgery, the Russian philosophy seems to be ‘grin and bear it.’ And for post-operative pain, very little is offered. Another ward-mate in our 3-bed ward who was recovering from a knife stabbing by a disgruntled employee, suffered terribly each evening without adequate pain killers being administered.

In my ward no one slept at night, most likely due to untreated pain. When I returned to my hotel yesterday, I went to bed and slept deeply for 8 hours as partial recovery from sleep deprivation of 6 nights.

Now, I move on to problems with the hospital administration that do have remedies that are not costly if anyone cared to pay attention.

First, the food. The meals were heavily composed of hot cereal or potatoes 3 times a day, with a chunk of ground meat at lunch or dinner, and with some broth or light soup. I like cream of wheat and hot oatmeal. But not 3 times a day. And not when I am immobile as nearly all the patients were. If you go out and chop wood all day, the caloric hot cereals are a blessing. If you lie in bed all day, they turn to cement and clog your intestines. No wonder that my fellow patients and I refused the meals after a day or two.

Second, the manner of address to patients by the hospital personnel which deprives you of any shred of dignity and sharply depresses your morale. In an earlier essay, I pointed out that the support staff, meaning orderlies, janitors, the guy who brings you the meals are quarrelsome nags who speak to you as ‘boys and girls’ or ‘hey, you!’ Who are they? Why are they so rude and offensive? I speak now not just of the female staff aged over 50 but also for their male colleagues of similar age. It is a safe guess, confirmed by Russian friends who visited me in hospital that the lower level personnel are all out-of-towners living at the edges of this metropolis who are not favorably disposed to the urban population and who also, as very underpaid employees, make class war remarks to your face. When I asked if I could just have some soup for dinner, the hag who was serving remarked tartly: “this is not a resort! Go downstairs, go outside and walk to the restaurant on our territory and go eat what you want!”

I initially praised the Russian hospital for having so much personnel on hand to ensure 24/24 surveillance of the patients, all of which compares favorably with the situation in Belgium, France and Germany where support staff is in short supply because these employees came largely from Africa, from the Middle East and Southern Europe who cleared out during Covid and never returned. But, our Gastarbeiters in Belgium were/are all very respectful and kindly towards the patients, not resentful and aggressive as is the case with the Russian support staff in Russia. It would be better if they had here more Central Asian or Caucasus orderlies and helpers, since they too will be better disposed to the patients. And the total number of support staff could be reduced so as to give those in employment real living wages.

Now a word about the professional medical staff. They are good, without question. The senior doctors work as a collegium. Each morning five of them came to visit the wards and to speak with each patient. However, the treating doctors are all younger women, seemingly recent graduates of medical school. What will be the career progression of these women is unclear. Let us remember that from Soviet times, the medical profession was mostly populated by women and was systematically underpaid. Males predominated in dentistry and gynecology, which were uniquely well paid domains.

My closing advice to the Community is to avoid hospitalization in Russia if you have any chance to get out of the country on the first plane. I did not have that option and paid the price. I cannot imagine how someone who does not know the language will survive the experience intact: no one in the Mariinsky Municipal Hospital spoke a word of any language other than Russian.

Copyright Gilbert Doctorow, 2026